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Using Data Analysis to Understand Competitive Overwatch

January 29, 2018

OWL Team Rankings - Stage 1 Week 4



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Below are the Overwatch League team rankings after Stage 1 Week 3 in 2018. All rankings are computer rankings generated automatically.  The overall rankings take into account strength of schedule (SOS - who beat who) and margin of victory and defeat.  RPI rankings are an adjusted version of the traditional sports metric.


Team Record Map Wins SOS RPI Rank Change
New York Excelsior 5W - 1L 17 0.562 1 1 0
Seoul Dynasty 5W - 1L 19 0.414 3 2 +1
London Spitfire 5W - 1L 17 0.453 2 3 -1
Houston Outlaws 4W - 2L 19 0.431 6 4 +1
Los Angeles Valiant 4W - 2L 14 0.481 5 5 -1
Philadelphia Fusion 4W - 2L 10 0.498 4 6 0
Boston Uprising 3W - 3L 11 0.522 7 7 +2
Los Angeles Gladiators 2W - 4L 8 0.561 8 8 0
Dallas Fuel 1W - 5L 7 0.569 10 9 +1
Florida Mayhem 1W - 5L 6 0.533 11 10 +1
San Francisco Shock 2W - 4L 7 0.483 9 11 -2
Shanghai Dragons 0W - 6L 4 0.492 12 12 0

You can sort by clicking on the column header (e.g. click on Map Wins to sort by number of maps won). *Map wins does not include tiebreak (i.e. 5th map).

Overwatch League Rankings Roundup: Last Week and the Week Ahead
Week 3 was an incredible week full of close matches and upsets. The highlight of the week were the Boston Uprising and Philadelphia fusion narrowly taking out top-teams London Spitfire and New York Excelsior. Many OWL fans were wondering if and when the all-Korean teams would fall, and last week two finally did. The battle for Los Angeles was also a very close match, with the Valiant prevailing over the Gladiators 3-2. Another highlight of the past week: the Fuel and Mayhem both won their first matches. Fans everywhere expected much of the teams, and they are starting to find their footing the OWL. Overall, the league is looking much more of a close race than in the first two weeks, with the main differences being individual player skill and team coaching/preparation.

As far as how accurate last week's rankings were, last week was more difficult to predict as we saw top teams lose for the first time. Our computer rankings resulted in successfully predicting 9 out of 12 matches last week for 75% correct. The big difference between the OmnicMeta rankings and others? We successfully predicted that New York would beat Seoul, and that Boston would beat Dallas. Note that Seoul has had the weakest match schedule to date, and has also given up maps to lesser teams. While many fans and rankings still hold them as the favorite, Seoul themselves admit that they expect other teams such as the Outlaws to be strong competitors. Dallas is an interesting team as they have had the strongest schedule so far, and have gone toe-to-toe with Seoul, while losing 4-0 to Outlaws. Dallas is certainly a team to watch as they can compete with any team in the league.

The Overwatch League team rankings this week sees some minor changes. The Los Angeles Valiant (4-2) and Houston Outlaws (4-2) both played the same opponents in Week 3: The Los Angeles Gladiators and the Florida Mayhem. The Outlaws performed significantly better than Valiant against those opponents, which the ranking algorithm picked up on - boosting Outlaws ahead of Valiant in the rankings. On the flip side, the Philadelphia Fusion (4-2) narrowly beat #1 team New York Excelsior, while also narrowly beating the last place team Shanghai Dragons. They are a streaky team for sure, and they haven't convinced the computer algorithm they deserve to be above mid-tier rankings yet. Other teams worth mentioning are the Boston Uprising (3-3), who won both matches against some stiff competition: the Fuel and the Spitfire. The final big mover is the San Francisco Shock, who drop two places in the rankings. They were beat soundly by the Fuel and have been beaten by quite a few mid-tier teams so far this Season.

Finishing off our recap, week 4 holds some exciting matches for OWL fans. The Seoul Dynasty have two huge matches this week vs top teams London Spitfire and Houston Outlaws. Fresh off a loss the Excelsior, can the Dynasty come back and beat two top teams? The Outlaws match is especially interesting given how much respect the Dynasty have given them during press interviews. The Los Angeles Valiant also have a tough week ahead, playing the Philadelphia Fusion and the Boston Uprising. Both opponents beat top all-Korean teams last week, and will be looking to dethrone the Valiant and establish themselves in the playoff hunt.

Hope you all enjoy the incredible matches this week!
-Switch